Bitcoin has had a rough start to November. It dropped to just under US $100,000 after having hit all-time highs of around US $126,000 in October.
In one month the crypto market wiped out most of its 2025 gains.
On the positive side, Bitcoin rebounded slightly and was trading around US $102,000 as of early November, supported by signs of accumulation.
While sentiment is cautious, one large institutional player, JPMorgan, recently turned bullish: they argue that the major deleveraging phase is over and that Bitcoin now offers significant upside compared to gold.
What’s Driving the Move
Deleveraging & liquidations
Bitcoin’s sharp pullback can be traced to a wave of leveraged bets unwinding and forced liquidations. Analysts say the perpetual‐futures market (highly leveraged) saw major pain, and now that lever is mostly gone.
Macro and regulatory headwinds
The broader macro environment has weighed heavily. Uncertainty around interest‐rates (e.g., signals from the Federal Reserve), global trade/tariff concerns, and regulatory questions in crypto markets have dampened risk‐appetite. For example, sentiment‐sensitive assets like Bitcoin are reacting to the same forces that affect equities.
Support signs whale buying & ETF flows
Despite the pullback, there are glimmers of support. Large “whale” wallets (address 1,000–10,000 BTC size) added some 29,600 BTC in a week.
Renewed inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs after multiple days of outflows also suggest investors are cautiously re-entering.
Institutional adoption / fund interest
A survey of hedge funds by the Alternative Investment Management Association (AIMA) found that 55 % of hedge funds now hold some crypto. That’s up from prior years. This adds to the argument that Bitcoin is becoming more embedded in institutional portfolios.
Outlook & Key Levels
Analysts are watching a number of critical levels and scenarios:
Support near US $100,000 is viewed as a key pivot. If broken decisively, further downside toward US $90,000–$94,000 becomes plausible.
On the upside, resistance lies around US $110,000–US $113,000 (also the 200‐day moving average) and a move above that could unlock higher targets toward US $120,000+.
From a valuation angle, JPMorgan estimates that to match gold on a volatility‐adjusted basis, Bitcoin “should” rise to about US $170,000 within 6–12 months.
On balance, the setup appears cautiously optimistic the major risk (over‐leverage) may have been cleared; accumulation is visible; support is being tested. But macro/regulatory risks remain non-trivial.
What to Watch
ETF flows & custody Net flows into/out of spot Bitcoin ETFs will give clues to demand strength.
Large wallet behaviour Continued accumulation by whales might signal conviction; big outflows might signal the opposite.
Macro/regulatory signals Any surprise from the Fed, major central bank statements, or crypto‐regulation news (in the US, Europe, Asia) will matter.
Key support/resistance breaks A break below US $100,000 could trigger deeper correction; a breakout above US $113,000 could renew bullish momentum.
Correlation with risk assets See how much Bitcoin is moving in tandem with equities, bonds and risk sentiment. A rising decoupling could be a positive sign.
November 2025 finds Bitcoin at an inflection point. It has pulled back from its highs, shaken off excess leverage, and is showing tentative signs of stabilization. Institutional sentiment has turned cautiously positive, though macro and regulatory clouds remain. The next few weeks will be telling: if support holds and flows resume, Bitcoin could set up for a 2025‐end push. If not, the correction risk remains.
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